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Time / Diagonal Spreads & Option Pricing
Provided
By Options University
Time Spread And Its Reaction To Increasing Volatility & How It Affects Option Pricing
The chart below shows a time spread, option pricing and its
reaction to increasing volatility. As you can see, each time
implied volatility increases, the value of the time spreads
increase. This increase would naturally favor the option pricing.
Chart 4 |
Stock Prices |
Vol. |
June / July 65 |
October / July 65 |
65.5 |
30 |
1.09 |
2.09 |
65.5 |
40 |
1.43 |
2.75 |
65.5 |
50 |
1.77 |
3.41 |
65.5 |
60 |
2.11 |
4.05 |
65.5 |
70 |
2.49 |
4.60 |
As you can see, if an investor bought the time spread at low
volatility and within a few weeks volatility had increased and
pushed the spread price higher, the investor could sell the
spread at a profit even before expiration.
Of course, the vega can also demonstrate the opposing effect.
As implied volatility decreases, the spread tightens or option
pricing decreases in value. As volatility comes down, the out-month
option with its higher vega will lose value to its option pricing
more quickly than will the nearer month option with its lower
vega. In the chart below, you will see how the time spreads
option pricing is affected by decreasing volatility.
Chart 5 |
Stock Price |
Vol. |
June / July 65 |
October / July 65 |
65.5 |
70 |
2.49 |
4.60 |
65.5 |
60 |
2.11 |
4.05 |
65.5 |
50 |
1.77 |
3.41 |
65.5 |
40 |
1.43 |
2.75 |
65.5 |
30 |
1.09 |
2.09 |
Glance back to Charts 4 and 5. Take note that the option pricing
is constant. The changes in the price of the spreads are due
to the change in volatility.
We discussed how to use vega to calculate an options price
when volatility changes. The same calculation method works for
time spreads but the calculation is slightly more difficult.
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